Cash Bail Fearmongering: Why the President Is Ignoring the Facts

President Trump just signed an executive order aimed at forcing every jurisdiction in the country to mandate cash bail. The White House frames this as a matter of “public safety,” arguing that without bail, dangerous criminals will roam free. But the problem is simple: the facts don’t back him up.

Illinois, the first state to completely eliminate cash bail under the SAFE-T Act, has already proven the doomsday predictions wrong. A comprehensive study by Loyola University Chicago shows that the sky hasn’t fallen. In fact, Illinois’ system is performing better than the one it replaced.

What the Data Shows

• Court appearance rates improved. Before reform, about 19% of defendants missed court. That number dropped to 17% after cash bail was eliminated.
• Crime rates among people released pretrial didn’t rise. Researchers found no spike in new charges for people awaiting trial.
• Dangerous offenders can still be detained. Judges now hold hearings where prosecutors must prove a person is a flight risk or public safety threat, instead of simply setting a dollar figure.
• Fairness increased. Before the change, about 60% of defendants charged with serious crimes were detained before trial. Now, around 50% are held—but based on risk, not their ability to pay.

As Loyola researcher Dan Stemen put it, “People shouldn’t be detained pre-trial without a pretty substantive argument for why they should be deprived of their liberty without having been convicted of a crime.” The Illinois experience has made that principle real.

The Political Theater

The President’s executive order isn’t about safety—it’s about optics. Campaigning on fear works better than explaining that reform is working. By insisting on mandatory cash bail, the administration is ignoring hard evidence in favor of a talking point.

Illinois has shown the nation that reforming pretrial detention doesn’t unleash chaos. Instead, it creates a fairer, more deliberate system where freedom or detention depends on risk, not wealth. That’s not a loophole—it’s justice working as intended.

Why It Matters

The cash bail system punishes poverty, not crime. Wealthy defendants can buy their freedom, while poor defendants—many of them legally innocent—sit in jail, lose their jobs, and plead guilty just to get out. Illinois replaced that broken system, and the results are clear: safer, fairer, and more rational justice.

So why is the White House pushing for a return to the old way? Because fear sells. But facts still matter, and the facts say this: eliminating cash bail in Illinois is working.